Medical decision making has evolved in recent years, as more complex problems are being faced and addressed based on increasingly large amounts of data. In parallel, advances in computing have led to a host of new and powerful statistical tools to support decision making. Simulation-based Bayesian methods are especially promising, as they provide a unified framework for data collection, inference, and decision making. In addition, these methods are simple to interpret, and can help to address the most pressing practical and ethical concerns arising in medical decision making.
* Provides an overview of the necessary methodological background, including Bayesian inference, Monte Carlo simulation, and utility theory.
* Driven by three real applications, presented as extensively detailed case studies.
* Case studies include simplified versions of the analysis, to approach complex modelling in stages.
* Features coverage of meta-analysis, decision analysis, and comprehensive decision modeling.
* Accessible to readers with only a basic statistical knowledge.
Primarily aimed at students and practitioners of biostatistics, the book will also appeal to those working in statistics, medical informatics, evidence-based medicine, health economics, health services research, and health policy.Parallelisierte Algorithmen auf Hochleistungsrechnern ermöglichen in letzter Zeit Simulationen mit immer mehr Variablen und haben zur Entwicklung neuer, aussagekräftiger Hilfsmittel der medizinischen Statistik und Entscheidungsfindung beigetragen. Ausgehend von einem interdisziplinärern Ansatz, konzentriert sich der Autor in erster Linie auf Bayes-Verfahren und deren Anwendung in der Medizin. Fallstudien illustrieren die Ansätze (vor allem Bayes- und Markov-Monte-Carlo-Methoden) und deren Implementation in Computerprogramme. Mit zahlreichen Fallstudien, die nicht nur für die medizinische Entscheidungsfindung relevant und interessant sind.