Superforecasting. The Art and Science of Prediction
Паперова книга | Код товару 684975
Автор
Філіп Тетлок, Ден Ґарднер
Видавництво
Random House
Мова
Англійська
Рік видання
2016
Кількість сторінок
340
Ілюстрації
Немає ілюстрацій
Формат
129x198x22 мм
Палітурка
М'яка

Усе про книжку Superforecasting. The Art and Science of Prediction

The international bestseller

'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
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What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?

Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.

In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
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'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist

'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent

'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

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Характеристики
Автор
Філіп Тетлок, Ден Ґарднер
Видавництво
Random House
Мова
Англійська
Рік видання
2016
Кількість сторінок
340
Ілюстрації
Немає ілюстрацій
Формат
129x198x22 мм
Палітурка
М'яка
Рецензії
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Superforecasting. The Art and Science of Prediction
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Відправлення з
11.06.2021
 

Рецензії Superforecasting. The Art and Science of Prediction

 
Характеристики Superforecasting. The Art and Science of Prediction
Автор
Філіп Тетлок, Ден Ґарднер
Видавництво
Random House
Мова
Англійська
Рік видання
2016
Кількість сторінок
340
Ілюстрації
Немає ілюстрацій
Формат
129x198x22 мм
Палітурка
М'яка
Папір
Офсетний
ISBN
9781847947154
Вага
245 гр.
Тип
Паперова