An essential short guide to Erdogan's future as the leader of Turkey and what it means for the world

"Informative." - Foreign Affairs Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled Turkey for nearly two decades. Here, Soner Cagaptay, a leading authority on the country, offers insights on the next phase of Erdogan’s rule. His dwindling support base at home, coupled with rising opposition, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and Turkey’s weak economy, would appear to threaten his grip on power. How will he react? In this astute analysis, Cagaptay casts Erdogan as an inventor of nativist populist politics in the twenty-first century. The Turkish president knows how to polarize the electorate to boost his base, and how to wield oppressive tactics when polarization alone cannot win elections. Cagaptay contends that Erdogan will cling to power—with severe costs for Turkey’s citizens, institutions, and allies. The associated dynamics, which carry implications far beyond Turkey’s borders—and what they portend for the United States—make A Sultan in Autumn a must-read for all those interested in Turkey and the geopolitics of the next decade.

"A brisk and informative review of the Turkish political scene, particularly Ankara’s foreign policy, through an examination of the recent political fortunes of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan." - Foreign Affairs

"A Sultan in Autumn is at his most dangerous. Soner Çagaptay gives a full account of Erdogan at this critical period. A crystal-clear report on the rise and fall of a quasi-dictator in the age of rising global authoritarianism." - Ece Temelkuran, Author of How to Lose a Country (2019) and political commentator

"Comprehensive and clear-eyed political analysis of Turkey under Erdogan, a leader whose complicated dance with internal and external actors has taken Turkey away from democracy, but, on a note of hope, perhaps not taken democracy away from Turkey. A must-read for anyone wishing to understand how Turkey came to its current state and what might happen next." - Jenny White Author of Turkish Kaleidoscope (2021) and Professor, Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies