Книга Prisoners of Their Premises: How Unexamined Assumptions Lead to War and Other Policy Debacles
A timely look at the real costs of leaders not examining their assumptions.
Why do accomplished and stable leaders frequently make calamitous decisions with devastating consequences for their countries—and other nations? We debate debacles such as the American involvement in Vietnam, seeking to understand why leaders pursued disastrous policies. In Prisoners of Their Premises, George C. Edwards III argues that the failure of leaders to examine their premises—the assumptions they make about the world and situation they are dealing with—cause them to ignore real problems or pursue policies that, in costly ways, deal with problems that are different than they think or simply don’t exist. Edwards looks at the role of premises in identifying (or ignoring) a problem in a series of case studies that range from strategic decisions in World War I and the Korean War to the wars in Vietnam and Iraq. Too often, unexamined premises color initial decisions to pursue a policy and shape the strategies leaders employ to achieve their goals, with grave consequences for their countries, organizations, and potentially the world. Timely and important, Prisoners of Their Premises demonstrates the real costs leaders incur by failing to question their assumptions.
"In this concise analysis, Edwards explores how and why leaders, especially presidents of the United States, make some of their most difficult choices concerning perceived problems. . . . The work challenges the reader to consider preexisting beliefs in political decisions and the difficulty leaders face to quickly process and analyze information. The work serves as a helpful reminder that everyone uses premises when making decisions, but that should not play a dominant role." - Library Journal
"Prisoners of Their Premises is a worthwhile beginning treatment of the subject, and the author is to be commended for stepping into areas which very few specialists in American domestic politics have broached." - Congress & the Presidency
"In this short but powerful book, Edwards probes an under-examined area: the roles assumptions and premises play in making decisions, especially (but not limited to) decisions about war...It is a very welcome addition to the foreign-policy analysis literature and a work all US policy makers should read." - Choice
