Книга Chinese Energy Futures and Their Implications for the United States
Chinese Energy Futures and Their Implications for the United States is a seminal work. George Eberling breaks new ground in our understanding of the vital energy issues that preoccupy China's leadership and the all-important U.S. national security and economic concerns in the 21st century.-Bernard D. Cole, National War College This book presents a comprehensive analysis that captures the broad sweep of China's global search for oil resources which many predict is leading to an emerging resource war between the U.S. and China. The author uses a formal model, a forecasting methodology that constructs scenarios for alternative futures, attempting to establish a quantitative causality between these alternative futures and their strategic implications for the United States. This methodology is an effort to go beyond the usual intuitive assessments of China's oil quest. The author offers policy recommendations on ways to mitigate the US-China struggle over the world's oil resources.-Gaye Christoffersen, Johns Hopkins University
China's rise in the global arena is undeniably altering the global status quo. Its rise is closely linked to and reflected in its rising dependence on imported oil, adroit soft power, economic prowess and corresponding impressive economic growth, its military modernization, and its strategic engagement of the world as an alternative model of political and economic development. As the status quo changes, the United States theoretically becomes less influential politically, economically, and militarily, because China is skillfully harnessing and strategically exercising the elements of national power to acquire scarce oil energy resources in the Near East, Western Hemisphere, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Chinese Energy Futures and Their Implications for the United States, by George Eberling, examines how Chinese oil energy specifically will shape future Sino-American relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency, and whether competition or cooperation for scarce energy resources will result. Eberling uses both scenario analysis and the PRINCE method to examine three possible Chinese oil energy futures: Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus, and Cooperative Surplus. Chinese Energy Futures also discusses and evaluates the strategic implications of these scenarios with respect to the United States.
"In Chinese Energy Futures and Their Implications for the United States, George Eberling examines the competition for resources, the direction it might take, and the possible implications for future Sino-US relations. The cover photo showing oil-well pumpjacks hints at the book’s major focus. The strength of George Eberling’s book is that it provides for those interested in national and international security policies plenty of detailed information about the regional impacts of the international competition for resources…in sum, the book is suitable for readers interested in policy scenarios" - China Information
