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A New York Times and Washington Post bestseller. An effective formula for making reliable predictions in any field, from politics and business to family life.

Prognostication, analysis, decision-making theory.

About the book

The ability to predict events helps us avoid mistakes and achieve success in all areas of our lives. However, very few people can predict what is worth investing in, what new product can win the market, and what changes to expect in the political arena. Even leading experts often make guesses about certain things rather than analysing the possibilities of their occurrence. However, some experts are able to make reliable predictions. How do they do it and is it possible to learn how to do it?

Who is the book for

This book is for anyone interested in forecasting, problem-solving techniques, and decision-making theories.

Why this book

Tetlock and Gardner have collected a number of predictions that have come true, even though most people thought they were wrong, and from this data they have created an effective formula for successful predictions that works in business, politics, international relations, and even in personal life.

About the authors

• Philip Tetlock is a Canadian-American writer, political scientist, and lecturer at the University of Pennsylvania.
• Dan Gardner
is a journalist, winner of the Amnesty International Media Award.

Reviews of the book

"Since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow, this is the best book on decision theory.

Wall Street Journal

"This book is the most important academic study of forecasting I have ever read."

Cass Sunstein, co-author of the bestselling book The Nudge. How to Help People Make the Right Choice"

"Tatlock proves that politics and human activity are not inscrutable mysteries. On the contrary, they are somewhat similar to weather forecasting, which can be accurately determined for the near future. The book's techniques for making decisions under uncertainty are a gift for anyone who wants to know what to expect in the future."

The Economist